PREDICTIONS: The Future of the Cruise Industry

Predictions on the future of the cruise industry post coronavirus
Predictions on the future of the cruise industry post coronavirus

Here is my prediction of the future impacts of the coronavirus on the cruise industry in the months / years ahead.  Basically the damage has been done and it will be a long time before cruise passengers have confidence to return to the ships.

In the near term 1-6 months:
  • When cruise lines resume operations after a temporary suspension, a good number of their ships will remain laid-up. They just will NOT be able to fill all the ships right away.
  • The number of cruise ports that prohibit cruise ship calls will increase. Bergen, Norway just joined the list of  destinations saying - "No Thanks" to the cruise lines.
  • Ships will be laid up due to the lack of demand. 
  • Itineraries will be altered based on the health of those onboard. Potentially sick passengers will cause ports to be skipped or passengers to be quarantined.
  • Cruise capacity in Europe will be ratcheted back significantly.
  • Additional cruise lines will sporatically lay up ships, especially in seasons where demand is normally low. (Early December).
  • Cruise lines will defer or cancel options for new cruise ships not yet built. 
  • And finally, some cruise lines may file for bankruptcy or for financial protection.
On board changes:
  • The cruise industry now knows it is under  a microscope and any issues are going to cause unwanted media attention. Some anticipated changes will be:
    • Extensive screening of passengers at the time of embarkation for signs of illness.
    •  The cruise lines will develop an aggressive cleansing program to sterilize the ships, passenger areas and common surfaces.
    • More frequent anti-bacterial mandatory hand washing.
    • Increased use of single use items - plates, glasses and utensils. 
    • Elimination of buffets OR the crew will dispense all food. You will NOT be able to touch the serving spoon or utensils. 
    • Cruise lines will beef up the ability to handle large scale illnesses onboard. 
    • Crew will be assigned to as single ship and not moved between ships in the fleet. 
    • Additional Passenger - Cruise Passenger release statements - releasing the cruise industry from liability for health related situations and results.
Looking ahead into 2021
  • Less demand for cruises in Europe and Asia causing ships to become available for reassignment. 
  • More ships will be based in the United States including New York.
  • Close to home cruising will become more popular since people will want to avoid air travel and minimize their risks should a cruise get cancelled.  
  • Some older ships will remain laid up or sold for scrap. 
It will be 3-5 years before cruising returns to normal.

Only time will tell if any of these items will prove true but I believe the items above will have a high probability of occurring.

Other Related Articles

Cruise Industry Predictions Part 1
Cruise Industry Predictions Part II
Cruise Industry Predictions Part III
Cruise Industry Predictions Part IV

RETURN TO NYCRUISEINFO.com

  ---------------------------------------
  Sister Sites
=> NYCruiseInfo.com Website - Cruise Schedule, Ship Reviews, Ports of Call & More.
=> Nick's Cruise Corner Blog - News On Cruise Ships Sailing World Wide.
=> Follow Us on Instagram - NYCruiseInfo At Instagram
=> Subscribe to Our Monthly New York Cruises Newsletter

.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Select Cruise Lines Suspend Operations, Stocks Plummet, President Addresses the Nation.

Image
Princess Cruises - Temporarily Suspends Operations - Video Jan Swartz The heightened awareness around the coronavirus has been amplified by President Trump's address to the nation on 3/11/20. The speech, which did not instill confidence in the public, has caused an already devastated cruise industry to take further blows. Here is a synopsis of the changes in the past 24 hours. While addressing the nation on 3/11/20 President Trump imposed the following: No foreign nationals from European countries will be permitted into the US. Exception: UK Residents. American Citizens traveling to most of Europe will need to self- quarantine themselves for a 2 week periods following their return to the US. The majority of European cruises are filled by American Citizens - with the new ruling, cruise cancellations spiked significantly. In reverse, many Europeans travel to Florida to embark on Caribbean Cruises. With the changes above they will NOT be p...
Read more

Totally Renovated Carnival Victory to Sail From New York in 2020 as the Carnival Radiance.

Image
Carnival Cruises Carnival Radiance to Sail From New York in 2020 (formerly the Carnival Victory) Carnival Cruise Line today announced the diverse inaugural schedule for the totally transformed Carnival Radiance, including 9- to 13-day European voyages, the line’s first to Cuba from New York and Norfolk, four- to nine-day sailings to the Caribbean, Canada/New England from New York, and a winter season of voyages to the Caribbean and Cuba from Port Canaveral, Fla. Carnival Radiance’s Diverse 2020 Inaugural Season Following a $200 million dry dock that will take place in Cadiz, Spain, Carnival Radiance will debut April 29, 2020, with a 10-day Mediterranean sailing from Barcelona followed by nine-and 12-day departures visiting top destinations throughout the region, including Italy, France, Croatia, Greece, Malta and Spain. The ship will then embark on a 13-day trans-Atlantic crossing from Barcelona to New York June 11-24, 2020, positioning the vessel for its inaugural se...
Read more

Norwegian Cruise Lines Extends Pause to October 1, 2020

Image
Norwegian Cruise Lines Extends Pause to October 1, 2020 In a written statement, Norwegian Cruise Line has stated they have extended the pause in operations to  October 1, 2020. Below is the official statement posted on the Norwegian Cruise Line Website. TRAVEL ALERT Updated: July 29, 2020 - Suspended 2020 Cruises  The safety, security and well-being of our guests, crew and communities we visit is our number one priority. We continue to closely monitor the COVID-19 coronavirus situation and the global health environment. With COVID-19 continuing to impact communities and ports around the globe, we have extended our voluntary temporary suspension of voyages through October 2020. We are committed to taking all appropriate steps and actions to combat the spread of COVID-19 and are working closely and in partnership with local, state, federal and global agencies. While this may result in additional future changes, please know our teams are working around t...
Read more