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PREDICTIONS: The Future of the Cruise Industry

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Here is my prediction of the future impacts of the coronavirus on the cruise industry in the months / years ahead.  Basically the damage has been done and it will be a long time before cruise passengers have confidence to return to the ships.

In the near term 1-6 months:
When cruise lines resume operations after a temporary suspension, a good number of their ships will remain laid-up. They just will NOT be able to fill all the ships right away.The number of cruise ports that prohibit cruise ship calls will increase. Bergen, Norway just joined the list of  destinations saying - "No Thanks" to the cruise lines. Ships will be laid up due to the lack of demand. Itineraries will be altered based on the health of those onboard. Potentially sick passengers will cause ports to be skipped or passengers to be quarantined. Cruise capacity in Europe will be ratcheted back significantly.Additional cruise lines will sporatically lay up ships, especially in seasons where demand…
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Norwegian Cruise Line to Lay-Up 3 Ships in Norfolk, Virginia.

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During last week's earning call, Norwegian Cruise Line announced that some ships would be moved to a cold lay-up status in order to reduce costs during the pause in operations.

On Friday it was announced that 3 Norwegian Cruise Line ships - the Norwegian Bliss, Norwegian Encore and the newly transformed Norwegian Spirit will be laid up at Norfolk Virginia's Portsmouth Marine Terminal . The ships reportedly have only a skeleton crew of 175 each. Crew member will NOT be allowed to go ashore but the ships will have reduced fuel, staffing and upkeep costs. The trade offs - these ships will require more time to reactivate to a cruising status.

This may be a foreshadowing of the fate of the Norwegian Bliss' Alaska program; the Norwegian Spirit's Eastern European cruise program and the Norwegian Encore's 2020 New York cruise program to Bermuda.

Although the current announcement says the lay-up in Norfolk is expected to be 30 days. It is assumed that the agreement can be …
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Carnival Cruises Cancels Carnival Sunrise 2020 New York Cruises

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Carnival Cruises has announced that the Carnival Sunrise's program from New York for 2020 has been cancelled. This means that Carnival is not planning to have any sailing from New York this year. The Carnival Sunrise is sailing between the islands of the Bahamas awaiting a decision on her long term layup.

Carnival has already stated that the Carnival Radiance (now still named the Carnival Victory and sitting idle in a drydock in Cadiz, Spain) is awaiting work to resume on her $200 Million transformation. It is unclear when work will resume but the 2020 program from New York was cancelled.

The planned introduction of the Carnival Mardi Gras in New York was cancelled prior to the Coronavirus outbreak due to shipyard delays.

Also it is unclear if docking facilities in Manhattan and Brooklyn will be available for cruise ships, since the Manhattan Cruise Terminal is currently supporting the hospital ship USNS Comfort. The Brooklyn Cruise Terminal has been repurposed as a hospital so …
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